Investing

Portfolio Management

I’ve been finding many people are becoming increasingly confident in their ability to manage their own investments. Somewhat surprisingly, many of these people are picking individual stocks and aren’t diversifying outside of stocks. In other words, 100% of their portfolios are invested in stocks, most often U.S. stocks exclusively. The level of overconfidence appears to …

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Investing

Climbing the Wall of Worry

Clearly, we’ve had a tremendous run in stocks but it hasn’t been without a chorus of very intelligent naysayers who have made many astute observations and convincing arguments. However, their predictions and their timing have been wrong. I don’t mean to be critical because many valid points have been made. But the trend and rising …

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Investing

Profit Growth

So US stocks were broadly up around 30% in 2019. As we’ve discussed before, valuations are a reflection of price relative to some fundamental metric such as earnings or cash flow. I came across this chart today. I’ve seen variations of it in multiple places in recent weeks. It’s worth sharing simply because profit growth …

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Investing

Channels

Another interesting chart I’ve come across in the past few weeks looks at the Dow over the past 95 years. In particular, the chart focuses on the trend in the index over the past 70 years. Note that the index hasn’t broken the top or bottom lines of the channel. The Dow bounced along the …

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Economics Investing

Inflation Follow Up

We discussed inflation in our post yesterday. We referenced financial asset and real asset inflation. I’ve now seen the tweet below from multiple professionals I follow and feel it’s worth sharing here. The tweet references financial asset inflation in terms of hourly wages of the average US worker. It’s pretty crazy to see how many hours …

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Investing

Stock Picking

We’ve discussed active versus passive investing at length in this blog. For those that might not be familiar with the difference, active investing is where a manager or investor attempts to pick investments that will beat a benchmark or relevant index while passive investing is where a manager or investor attempts to match benchmark or …

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Investing

International Diversification

Sometimes you have to see, read and/or hear something multiple times before it actually sinks in. This is one of those cases for me. I’ve written extensively about the benefits of diversification in this blog and have been a huge advocate of international diversification for myself and for my clients. I read this piece yesterday and I …

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