Finance & Economics Blog
Small cap stocks in the US have been on a tear since early September and really since last March. The Russell 2000 is up 137% over the past year and nearly 47% since early September. What has particularly stood out is the outperformance versus the S&P 500, which is up 68% from a year ago …
While short-term pain is hard to withstand, longer-term investors may greatly benefit in the years to come by buying into emerging market weakness. Swedroe has a great piece on etf.com explaining why emerging markets matter. Hint: Diversified portfolios with exposure to US and emerging market equities have historically had higher risk-adjusted returns than U.S. only …
Great letter from the SF Fed on the flattening yield curve as a recession indicator. The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook “Using both a descriptive approach and evidence from a dynamic model of Treasury yields, I find that the risk of a recession within the next year is only slightly higher …
So I have been pretty outspoken about my personal view that tariffs will not cause much disruption to the U.S. economy. The recently released Beige Book by the Fed suggests otherwise with specific complaints from certain manufacturers about the negative impacts on their businesses from new trade policies. You really can’t argue against real life …
Fact: We consciously or subconsciously prefer complexity to simplicity in spite of what we might think. Complexity helps us to “make sense” of the world and situations around us, which satisfieS our innate need to have a “rational” explanation for everything. Shane over at Farnam Street did a great write-up on complexity bias earlier this …