While short-term pain is hard to withstand, longer-term investors may greatly benefit in the years to come by buying into emerging market weakness. Swedroe has a great piece on etf.com explaining why emerging markets matter. Hint: Diversified portfolios with exposure to US and emerging market equities have historically had higher risk-adjusted returns than U.S. only …
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Flattening Yield Curve Signals
Great letter from the SF Fed on the flattening yield curve as a recession indicator. The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook “Using both a descriptive approach and evidence from a dynamic model of Treasury yields, I find that the risk of a recession within the next year is only slightly higher …
Beige Book Tariff Complaints
So I have been pretty outspoken about my personal view that tariffs will not cause much disruption to the U.S. economy. The recently released Beige Book by the Fed suggests otherwise with specific complaints from certain manufacturers about the negative impacts on their businesses from new trade policies. You really can’t argue against real life …
Complexity vs. Simplicity
Fact: We consciously or subconsciously prefer complexity to simplicity in spite of what we might think. Complexity helps us to “make sense” of the world and situations around us, which satisfieS our innate need to have a “rational” explanation for everything. Shane over at Farnam Street did a great write-up on complexity bias earlier this …