Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up about 11.5%. Over the same time period, interest rates, as measured by the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield, have declined nearly 13% to 2.47% (as of 3/22/19). This trend appears to be sending mixed signals as rates historically have increased when stocks were on the rise in a typical business …
Month: March 2019
Economic Growth and the Housing Market
Sluggish GDP growth has been a concern for the past 10 years, following the last recession. Many papers have been written and many opinions have been offered. Academic studies demonstrated that overhangs after financial crises can lead to below average economic growth for a number of years. Additionally, high debt levels relative to a country’s …
Recessions & the Stock Market
The Expert Who Cried Recession Lots of people have been talking about the next recession and it’s not even here yet (as far as we know). Most have been trying to read the tea leaves and project the year of commencement of the next recession…the second half of 2019, 2020, 2021, etc… In this day …
Equity Allocations
In our last post, we shared a different perspective on viewing future stock market returns (vs. the traditional approach of using valuation levels) introduced by the author of the Philosophical Economics blog several years ago. As a reminder, the basic premise was to take a supply/demand perspective on equity, fixed income and cash allocations using …